- Cognitive Biases in Hearthstone - Gambler's Fallacy (#1) - Hearthstone Top Decks
- Cognitive Biases in Hearthstone – Gambler’s Fallacy (#1)
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How do they work? Why do they happen? Are there any situations in which they actually make sense? Identifying them and realizing what they are is a big step in terms of becoming a better player. Plus some of them are just interesting to read about.
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The easiest way to explain it is by looking at the series of coin flips. You flipped it 4 times and got tails four times in a row. What has the higher chance of coming up next? After all, tails came up four times in a row already. It most commonly affects gamblers playing random games, such as slot machines.
If you lost 10 times in a row, it FEELS like your chance to win will be higher now, which obviously is not true. I know how weird it sounds, but bear with me. Instead of trying to fight against that bias, some people accepted it as a part of human nature and… made it real. Those people are game designers. You see, here is the thing.
Cognitive Biases in Hearthstone - Gambler's Fallacy (#1) - Hearthstone Top Decks
Games are meant to be fun. It will be a gross oversimplification, but the game is basically about shooting aliens. If you aim at one of them, the game shows you how likely you are to hit your target. It makes long streaks of misses less likely, and thus making the game more fun to play. If you think that XCOM is an exception, you would be very wrong. However, some games still introduce similar systems to decrease the streaks of bad RNG. One example would be League of Legends and its critical chance mechanic.
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However, the game tries to dynamically adjust the critical chance in order to hit the right mark so 10 crits in hits in this case. Below, I will present a few examples of common applications of this bias in game. Look at each of the random rolls individually. Assuming that your chance to succeed is higher than it really is might lead to suboptimal plays. This is still very common, and a terrible way to think about drawing cards.
Duskbreaker , for example. If you have 10 cards left in your deck, the chances to draw it will always be 1 in So, why might it matter? Since you were so unlucky for the last few turns, you just HAVE to get it now. And you might try to go for a desperate card draw.
But the truth is that 1 in 10 is still a low chance, if you put all your bets on it being the next card, you would lose that game 9 out of 10 times. Instead, you might do some other play that would have a higher chance to win. Matchup RNG is huge, but people often miss it when talking about randomness in Hearthstone. This is something I hear very often from my friends playing the game. The fact that you play against a certain deck a few times in a row DOES NOT mean that the next time you queue, you will have a lower chance of facing it.
But, what is even worse is the exact opposite. Or maybe you just got unlucky. Of course, those are just a few examples. But, there is one more thing I want to talk about. The Pity Timer works exactly like that. The more packs from the same expansion you open without getting a Legendary, the higher your chance to open one will get.
The reason for this system is simple — to eliminate some extremely unlucky streaks that would eventually happen. Reaching pity timer already feels terrible. Now imagine buying packs from a new expansion and not opening a single Legendary. That would surely be bad for business.
Cognitive Biases in Hearthstone – Gambler’s Fallacy (#1)
At least when it comes to the first part of the series. If I made a mistake somewhere, was wrong about something etc. A Hearthstone player and writer from Poland, Stonekeep has been in a love-hate relationship with Hearthstone since Closed Beta. Over four years of playing and three years of writing about the game, he has achieved infinite Arena and multiple top Legend climbs.
Check out Stonekeep on Twitter!
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Lol this game is so triggered…. Blizzard in the last update pointed out that they have triggered a bit paladins in arena to make them less powerful. Which proves that there is a mechanism in this game to control the rng…this game is wasted. For example, Paladin had a higher than average win rate, and should now be closer to average. That sounds more like the match-making system catching up with you is all — and your lucky streak coming to an end. Keep me logged in on this device. Forgot your username or password? Sed Sed 2 years ago 1 So I decide to play some fun hearthstone decks today I faced c'thun warrior after c'thun warrior.
Nothing I can really do to win the match up as long as they use brann properly. All of a sudden the previous flood of Shaman and Zoo is gone.. So I decide to make a stupid Shaman.. I then queue into 4 rogues in a row after not playing against a single one all day. They're all playing some form of miracle which is pretty rough for me since I'm playing earth elementals with ancestral spirit which if you get those sapped My wild rank is rank I queue into a druid.
Poor guy was obviously clueless.. Sed Sed Topic Creator 2 years ago 3 xxChoasxx posted Reonikki Reonikki 2 years ago 5 I always feel that whenever I queue in ladder, the first deck I encounter will always be a hard counter. Bryfang Bryfang 2 years ago 6 I'm starting to wonder that myself. Saberfox11 Saberfox11 2 years ago 8 NewMoonShadow posted Bryfang Bryfang 2 years ago 9 Saberfox11 posted Never really understood the choice of having no chat feature in Hearthstone games. Yeah we all know every once in a while someones gonna loose their temper and throw a hissy fit, but it also prevents players from making friends through Hearthstone games.
Love is patient, love is kind. It does not envy, it does not boast, it is not proud. It does not dishonor others, it is not self-seeking, it is not easily angered, it keeps no record of wrongs. Originally Posted by -Ethos-. Man i wasted so much money on Yu-gi-oh! The fact they made it so you dont have to buy all the cards is a blessing. Originally Posted by Calamari.
Last edited by Daswolfen; at You people are crazy. Its a free game to play, let them make some damn money for it Who's the greedy ones? You realize there is a button that says "Don't rank my matches" so until you're "geared" up card wise, you don't have to have it negatively effect you. It wouldn't hurt you to support their efforts a bit too. And Arenas are completely random so you're only really complaining about ranked matches here.
Not that big of a deal, holy piss, a company wants to make some money for a project they put time and effort into. Cry a damn river. It's sad that people like OP have Beta keys and I do not. Bow down before our new furry overlords! Originally Posted by HardlyWaken. There is nothing wrong with the game model its the fact you can't gain cards at a fast enough rate, there fore you pretty much have to buy them. Card games in real life have to be P2W.